Confusion Rampant in Sealing Debate

When it comes to the Atlantic Seal hunt, I have to wonder when enough is enough, as far as public opinion polls go. In the battle between the anti and pro hunt sides, opinion polls are used like an AK-47’s to spray the general public, in the hope that some of the bullets will find a vulnerable target.

The recent spate of polls quoted by the media, the government of Canada and various animal rights groups are a great example of polling gone mad. The result is a situation where it doesn't seem to matter which side is right but rather which one has the best promotional staff. Caught in the middle are the sealers and the seals.

Some experts claim that opinion polls by their very nature can be self fulfilling. If you tell everyone that 80% of people refuse to eat blueberries because they cause tooth decay, that by itself may be enough to convince a large segment of the population to stop eating blueberries. In the I.T. world this is what’s known as an “endless loop” and it isn’t a good thing.

Others, including the founder of one the world’s largest polling companies, have recently said that today’s poll are often suspect at best. At one time “cold calling” for public opinion returned a response rate of over 90%, today that number is likely below 30%.

This change in response is primarily due our evolving lifestyles. Many people today simply don’t want to take the time to answer questions and because cell phone usage makes it much more difficult to reach householders, only limited result sets are captured in many polls.

Experts say this can lead to skewed results since the numbers may be largely based on the opinions of a small segment of the population who don’t have much else to do but answer questions, or who are largely averse to advances in technology or other areas. If the belief is true, i would certainly narrow the playing field.

Questions around polling accuracy certainly don’t stop special interest groups on either side of a debate from touting the poll that favors their opinion. Proponents often tend to brush aside any polls that support an opposing view while promoting those that do. As a result we are a public that is only made aware of the specific opinions presented in the article, commentary or news item we are exposed to. I guess the hope of proponents on either side of the issue is that the numbers they present will be the ones that will “self fulfill” themselves.

Let me give you an example.

A March 16, 2006 article, written by Chris Cutter of the International Fund for Animal Welfare, quotes a 2005 poll. This poll supposedly found that 69 percent of Canadians were opposed to the commercial seal hunt. The case being made of course was that Canada should stop the hunt because its citizens are against it. Similar numbers, likely from the same poll, were quoted by musician Paul McCartney during a recent interview on Larry King Live.

On the other side of the debate we find the Department of Fisheries and Oceans recently quoting a February 2005 Ipsos-Reid poll which concluded that 60 per cent of those surveyed were in favor of a “responsible hunt.”

Who is right?

Adding to the confusion of these hand picked results are situations where non-scientific polls are actually manipulated by special interest groups in order to reflect that group’s views. A good example of this is a seal hunt poll conducted on the CTV website. The poll was open to the general public, but there was no concerted effort by CTV to ensure it that the poll was widely publicized. As a result, while members of the general public who wished to express an opinion were left of either find the poll or not, the Animal Alliance of Canada took it upon itself to “rally its troops”, in an effort to control the poll’s results.

The following was contained in an email dated March 16 and written by Karen Levenson, Program Director for the Canadian Seafood Boycott, of the Animal Alliance of Canada. The email was sent to the organization’s mailing list members and states in part:

"Hi Everyone,

CTV has a poll on the Seal Hunt. Please click on the link below. It Will take you to the CTV.ca home page…”

“Please vote "No".

“Please distribute this poll to as many people as possible.”

The email was clearly intended to manipulate the poll’s results. The motive for this action was no doubt to ensure results that could later be used in promotional materials intended to sway public opinion to organization’s side of the debate, the “endless loop” once again. Ms. Levenson didn't even identify for her recipients precisely what the poll question was, she simply asked them to “vote No”.

So what is the real truth? Who should we believe when it comes to the true level of support for Canada’s seal hunt? What do Canadian’s really feel about the issue? I don’t mean, "what does either side want the public to believe" or "What does either side want to make the public believe", simply what do Canadians actually believe.

That, unfortunately, is something we may never know, but I recently came across the results of yet another poll that at least on the surface seems to reflect my belief. I figure that if everyone else is publishing the results of polls that reflect their personal points of view then why shouldn’t I.

This recently released poll highlights the overall lack of knowledge that exists around the entire subject. According to the poll nearly 70% of Canadians admit to having very limited knowledge about the hunt and say they know little about the how it is conducted.

Like other polls I suspect that this result should be taken with a grain of salt, but having said that, I have to admit that the numbers don’t surprise me. With the level of misinformation being published by various media outlets and spread by other means, it wouldn’t be a great shock if the public were more than a little confused over the issue.

Beyond the lack of public understanding suggested in the poll, there is another reason this particular result caught my eye. It interested me because it made me wonder, if we are to believe the results then should we not call into question the results of those other polls, or at the very least take the opinions of those responding to the issue with a large truck load of salt.

Remember, public opinion polls published by various animal rights groups show that 69% of respondents are opposed to the seal harvest. Polls presented by DFO show that 60% of Canadians actually do support the harvest? Yet a recent poll shows that most Canadians admit not really knowing much about the hunt at all. In this light I have to wonder what the people responding to either of the first two polls were basing their opinions on.

With all of these opinions going around it really is confusing but I’d like to share my own opinion on the subject before I sign off.

As far as I’m concerned, if 70% of Canadians don’t actually know the facts surrounding the seal hunt, then their opinions aren’t really of much value one way or the other. At the very least they don’t provide a solid argument for either side to hang its hat on.